But how likely is it that the EU will fail? In a recent paper, I argue that there are essentially two scenarios in which the EU could collapse. The first entails all EU member states agreeing — unanimously — to change the Treaties and dissolve the EU. This is, perhaps self-evidently, never going to happen since there will always be states opposing this course of action e. The second scenario is the EU being hollowed out by successive — but individual — exits of member states, which each state can decide on a sovereign basis within its own domestic political arena.
This second option cannot be discarded out of hand. In fact, many states have already been linked to future exits, as this picture brilliantly summarises. The approach underpinning the exit index is simple. I look for indicators in the social, economic, and political dimensions that help us develop a better sense of how likely future exits are. For example, in the social dimension, it seems clear that the greater the share of citizens having only a national and no European identity, the more plausible an exit scenario is.
Economically, the share of exports going to other EU member states and thus the value of membership of the single market promises to be a good indicator.
Politically, the share of Eurosceptic MPs goes, among other factors, into the exit index. My findings can be summarised in two figures. Figure 1 shows the situation before the Brexit referendum so around As can be seen in the table on the right, the UK really was uniquely positioned to leave the EU.
It was also the only country ranking in the top three in each dimension individually. Core 1 states are extremely unlikely to leave the EU. Note, for example, that Ireland clearly falls into that category. Core 2 states are very unlikely to leave, but more likely than core 1 states. France and Germany, for example, belong to this core. Core 3 states are most susceptible to a leave vote.
Unsurprisingly, Greece and Italy can be found in this core. However, even in core 3 the default expectation remains EU membership for all states but the UK. Figure 2 shows how the situation has changed since the referendum. Overall, the EU has moved closer together. The only country really edging closer to an exit scenario in the past three years has been Italy. However, only 39 per cent of Italians lack a European identity. For comparison, the UK hit a whopping 63 per cent before the narrowly won referendum.
I thought the UK had already left the EU? So what changes on 1 January? What's in the Brexit deal? Image source, Reuters. Will there be disruption at the borders? Is this finally the end of having to hear about Brexit? What Brexit words mean. Brexit: Seven things that will change on 1 January The key points of the Brexit deal How to get ready for Brexit in How your Europe holidays will change. Related Topics. Published 1 July Published 21 October. At that point, Italy would have exited the euro.
This would have occurred without a pre-determined juridical framework, since the EU Treaty does not contemplate the option of abandoning the monetary union.
Technically, a new currency named the Eurolira would have been introduced. Since there would be no time to print new banknotes, the old ones would have to be marked by banks. Banking deposits would be converted in real time to Eurolira. Initially, the exchange rate would be fixed at one Eurolira for one euro.
Later, the market would have forced the Eurolira to devaluate in an unpredictable measure. The drop in the value of the new currency would have depended on what mechanism was chosen for restructuring the public debt.
It was considered essential that Italy avoid resorting to foreign investors in order to prevent an even more dramatic devaluation. By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Brexit: what happens when Britain leaves the EU. By Timothy B. Reddit Pocket Flipboard Email. The process of leaving the EU will take years Britain's vote to leave the EU is not legally binding, and there are a few ways it could theoretically be blocked or overturned.
And that could create serious problems for businesses based in the UK. The Brexit means significant uncertainty for migrants Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, campaigned for Leave on an anti-immigration platform.
Sign up for Vox Sentences: By signing up, you agree to our terms. Next Up In World. Delivered Fridays. Thanks for signing up!
Check your inbox for a welcome email. Email required. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Notice and European users agree to the data transfer policy. For more newsletters, check out our newsletters page. The Latest. How a simple solution slashed child mortality in rural Kenyan villages By Dylan Matthews. Why Biden has disappointed on immigration By German Lopez. Hating work is having a moment By Rani Molla.
0コメント